There is a thought that the wings of a butterfly in Japan can produce a breeze across the world. It is the sensitive nature of initial conditions. This seems very much like human life too in action and reaction – It can make such a difference.  I have become aware of the sensitive nature of initial conditions sometimes in just writing blogs. I see where I began, where I ended and how development can change in between. I have experienced the Butterfly Effect.

For a brief history and concept of The Bufferfly Effect see:

If I tried to picture the Butterfly Effect, what would it look like? Motion and movement, but connecting beginning and ending, with random sequence in between. This may seem somewhat Zen maybe, but I don’t envision it as being a traditional Zen or Buddhist rendition. In other styles, perhaps  a surrealist painting in the style of Dali could capture it? Or abstract painting may be able to synthesize such concepts quite well? Below is a Fractal image that may capture some of the essence.

Fractal Image of a Butterfly

Have you ever wondered why the weather can not be predicted more than five to seven days in advance? The reason is a phenomena known as  the  Butterfly Effect. It is so named because a butterfly flapping its wings has a potential influence due to the sensitive nature of initial conditions. This is part of Chaos Theory in which systems appear to exhibit random behavior, while the model of the system is based on predictable behavior. In 1960 a fellow by the name of Edward Lorenz solved some equations on a computer that were fairly successful in predicting the weather. But Lorenz discovered something deeper as he investigated his model further. The predictions were very sensitive to the initial input parameters. As weather evolved over time, the predictions became more and more unreliable. The result is that weather cannot be predicted in long term time periods (greater than about a week). So, you might ask, what is all this talk about Climate Change, if it cannot be predicted? Well,  climate is different from  weather. Climate is the long term average of weather. It can be predicted in the long term. This is the concern of theories on the changing climate of our planet that we call home. Is it a natural cycle or a man made problem? Is mankind introducing a daily butterfly effect, that averaged over time, is gradually producing a warmer climate on planet earth?

This is your world on Carbon Dioxide

Call it Global Warming or Climate Change, it will become as debated an issue in future time as abortion has been in past time. It concerns not the question of human live itself, but whether there will be any human life left to consider. At an rate, some stories worth considering this year on a topic that seems to have a couple of names now (See links below):

In all fairness, I feel obliged to offer a web site that shows a very one sided version of this topic. The following web site displays ONLY stories that support evidence against global warming/climate change: www.globalwarming.org. It is not all wrong, but very biased. I offer it as a challenge to balanced thinking.

There is a story on frog extinction that is quite interesting (See Jumping to Conclusions). This is contrary to the story above (see  Jumping Into Extinction). I have been following this story for a few years now. For those that are not familiar, there is a mass extinction of amphibians taking place. Many tropical frogs have been dying from an unknown malady. It is, in fact, the largest mass extinction of a species ever witnessed in the recorded history of man. Scientists around the world are working as fast as they can to collect specimens of the various tropical frogs for preservation. Scientists still do not know what is the cause. Is it changing environment inviting new disease, or is it simply an unfortunate disease among these creatures unrelated to their habitat conditions? The following link is a followup story on the subject: (see frog fungus).

Hot Spots on the Earth

I am a scientist, not an alarmist. These topics I bring to your attetion are for your awareness. You can check things out for yourself at the National Climate Data Center (NCDC) of NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. Click on: Climate Data Archive

There is one definite “fact”. Call it a “truth” if you will, an “inconvenient truth” perhaps. Our planet is getting warmer my friends. The science is in and it is part of life on earth now. The question remaining to be answered is whether the cause is man or nature itself.  I only suggest that you think about it, as we all should be doing. This is not about politics or money or god even, but more about the survival of humanity, not you and I necessarily, but the generations to come.

Human Journey

Where are the generations of humanity now (men and women) as they have spread across the planet? It is possible to roughly trace the history of the movement of homo sapiens out of Africa, spanning 200,000 years, along with changes in climate in the deep past. Link to: Journey of Mankind. It would seem we have faced extinction as a species before!

So, where did you and I and everyone we know come from through the generations of movement and prosperity in the last 200,000 years encompassing the changes in climate? The Genographic Program is in the process of tracking humanity to find out. Genetic kits are available for purchase if you wish to determine your deep past genetic ancestry. Find out more at: Genographic Project

In the meantime, while humanity is tracing its footsteps and  you and I are wondering where we came from 1K, 10K or 100K years ago, there is climate change to deal with. If you wish to take an active role in discovering what is going on today, you can take part in an experiment to determine what is really happening by lending your computer, when not in use, towards this endeavor. To find out more, go to:  Climate Prediction.

My feeling is that mankind will survive for some time to come if we accept that nature has a will of its own and doesn’t need any help from us to decide our fate. We are part of nature and the process. We can, however, choose to be mindful and aware. The choice is ours.

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