Finance


Keep on Trekkin

As I did at the end of 2013 & 2014, so I do again here at the end of 2015 to recount some travel experiences, which I don’t normally write about here. I need not give the whole setup again for the premise of such entries and see my blog from the end of 2013: Travels of Spocklogic. The notables this year (travel blogs I finished or made additions to) include:

feature-Erice2014-lgFeature-Indian_Wedding

Feature - Washington DC-1

Feature-China_2014

Feature-Spocklogics_TravBuddy_Meetups

 

That’s the summary for 2015. Some are carry overs from 2014, but I finished the blogs in 2015, after my last post on travels (see: Travels of Spocklogic II) in December 2014 or earlier if I made additions. As I alluded to in recent entries, I will take a break from this Cogito Ergo blog for a while in 2016. I’ve had 20 years of internet exposure and been blogging for 10 years (see: 20 Years of Internet and Mapping the Internet). I hope to return again with a fresh perspective down the line. There’s plenty to explore in the Cogito Ergo blog archives until then (see the link to: Browse Blog Posts). Best wishes for the New Year 2016! See you in the future…

bones-travels-through-time

kirk-and-spock-travel-back-in-time-to-2014

As I did at the end of 2013, so I do again here at the end of 2014 to recount some travel experiences, which I don’t normally write about here. I need not give the whole setup again for the premise of such entries and see my blog from the end of 2013: Travels of Spocklogic. The notables this year are a couple of blogs I finished and some reviews that may be of interest:

spocklogic_Lyon-France_travel_blog.
spocklogic_Wroclaw-Poland_travel_blog.

spocklogic_Kirin-Hot-Pot_review.spocklogic_Long-Chao-Shou_review.
spocklogic_Ram-Pam-Pam-Pam_review.spocklogic_Raclawice-Panorama_review

That summarizes some travel selections for 2014. I did travel to Italy also in July 2014, and have some links to share for photo collections I put together for a special year in Erice to celebrate a 40th anniversary of the International School of Atomic and Molecular Spectroscopy (ISAMS):

Rino: 40 Year Erice Celebrations (2014) – Erice, Italy
2014 Erice Workshop: 30 July – August 5 – Erice, Italy
People (2014) – Erice, Italy
Places (2014)
– Erice, Italy

In addition, I traveled to China again this year in November 2014, but am still working on my travel blog for that, so it will have to wait until my 2015 account of my travels. I will make this type of entry something traditional at years end to cover where I have been and what I have done in travel ways. It’s all rather like the City on the Edge of Forever perhaps…

city_on_the_edge_of_forever-kirk&spock

 

 

drspock

I don’t often write about my travels in this WordPress blog (Cogito Ergo) as I have another site for that (TravBuddy). In this year of 2013, I completed a number of travel blogs on that site that are worth noting and I give the links to them here. Mind you, I don’t know that any of my travel blogs are ever really completed. Each one is like a child I nurture and raise up, but always needs attention in future ways. Anyway, I suppose I list them here for my own reference and also to offer it to others who may be interested in my travels. There is some connection of the blogs, one to another in embedded personal ways, but are also self-contained. Here they are:

Spocklogic_DC_Travel_Blog

.

Spocklogic_Italy_Travel_Blog.

Spocklogic_Switzerland_Travel Blog.

Spocklogic_Germany_Travel Blog.

Spocklogic_Travel_Topics.

Spocklogic_China_Blog.

Some of these blogs have been posted for some years, and I either added to them, made them more complete, and/or formed connections between them. Some of them are entirely new in 2013. They do tell a story in total I suppose and maybe that’s why I decided to make a sort of review of the Travels of Spocklogic here. They were also all the blogs featured on TravBuddy for me this year. My Italy blog (L’Avventura Dell Italia) seems never-ending and I have some more work to do on it, but the majority of important events are there for the most part. The last one in this list, the blog on China, is something I am still working on too, but intend (or hope) to complete it before the end of 2013. I suppose this collection of blogs forms a personal journey of sorts that I tried to form this year regarding my life and relation to travel. When I finish the China blog, maybe I will know what I have been endeavoring to understand and ultimately discover in my life. It’s not a teaser, or cliffhanger, but maybe more a matter of what I will embrace. Sounds enigmatic I suppose, but not really. It’s my personal perspective, the choices I make and what is ultimately best for me in a world of possibilities…

knowyourspock-1

Time_is_Money

Photo I took at the Grand Bazaar in Istanbul, Turkey

Since today is International Pi Day, I thought a bit of mathematics would be in order to honor the occasion. Nothing to do with Pi the constant really, but perhaps some knowledge to help you get a ‘piece of the pie’ so to speak! A good question in life is how to build wealth. For most of us this amounts to saving and good investment, but how does it work out mathematically and what are the important variables involved? Let’s find out… Don’t worry if you are not mathematically inclined and I will try to keep it as simple as possible, but the important point is to understand the variables, and the concepts they represent for you the investor. If you wish to skip over the mathematics, you can just refer to the boxed equations, which represent the core results.

Starting with a simple application will help to define some variables and introduce the concepts. We begin by asking a simple question: If you invest a given amount of money (P) called the principal, what is the total return amount (T1), that you will have at the end of 1 year, given a yearly rate of return (i) called the interest rate. The answer is simple:

T_{1} = P(1+i)

Now, we ask the question, what about the total return amount, T2, after 2 years? Well, after the first year, T1 becomes the principal for the 2nd year, that is:

T_{2}=T_{1}(1+i)\\ {\quad}=P(1+i)(1+i)\\ {\quad}=P(1+i)^{2}

And for the 3rd year:

T_{3}=T_{2}(1+i)\\ {\quad}=P(1+i)^{2}(1+i)\\ {\quad}=P(1+i)^{3}

and so on… The general answer for N years is:

\boxed{T=P(1+i)^{N}}  Eq. I

This equation embodies the concept of compound interest and shows the total growth (T) with an initial investment (P), assuming an average interest rate (i) over a number of years (N).

Let’s try something a little more advanced now and ask the more complicated question regarding the growth of your money if, instead of just investing one lump sum, you invest a certain amount per year. So, suppose you invest (P) in the first year, then your total after that year is simply T1=P(1+i), as was initially stated at the beginning. In the second year you again invest (P) on top of T1, so what is the total, T2 after the second year? It is:

T_{2}=(T_{1}+P)(1+i)\\ {\quad}=[P(1+i)+P](1+i)\\ {\quad}=P(1+i)[1+(1+i)]

And for the 3rd year:

T_{3}=(T_{2}+P)(1+i)\\ {\quad}=[P(1+i)[1+(1+i)]+P](1+i)\\ {\quad}=P(1+i)[1+(1+i)+(1+i)^{2}]

The trend is clear and we have what is called a geometric progression. Writing the terms in brackets as a geometric series:

1+(1+i)+(1+i)^{2}+...=\displaystyle\sum_{x=0}^{N-1}\left(1+i\right)^{x}

where N is the number of years. It gets a little complicated here, so bear with me. We can rewrite the summation as:

\displaystyle\sum_{x=0}^{N-1}\left(1+i\right)^{x}=\displaystyle\sum_{x=0}^{N}\left(1+i\right)^{x}-\left(1+i\right)^{N}

At this point I can use a trick with summations of the form S_{n}=\displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^{N}a^{n}

aS_{n}=\displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^{N}a^{n+1}

aS_{n}-S_{n}=\displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^{N}a^{n+1}-\displaystyle\sum_{n=0}^{N}a^{n}=a^{N+1}-1

We can now write:

\displaystyle\sum_{x=0}^{N-1}\left(1+i\right)^{x}={{(1+i)^{N+1}-1}\over{(1+i)-1}}-(1+i)^{N}={{(1+i)^{N}-1}\over{i}}

So, in general, we have:

\boxed{T=P(1+i){{(1+i)^{N}-1}\over{i}}}  Eq. II

Illustrating again the power of compound interest and shows the total growth (T) with a yearly investment (P), assuming an average interest rate (i) over a number of years (N).

As a check, Eq. II should reduce to Eq. I when N = 1. In this case [(1+i)-1]/i = 1 and indeed it does! So, what does all this mean anyway?

Eq. I – Suppose you invest $10,000, what can you expect after N years assuming an average interest rate of 10 percent?

P-onetimeP-onetime-pie.

For the last 25 years the stock market return has been around 10% per year (or i = 0.1). Even historically since 1929 (after the Crash) the return is about the same during that time. All this despite lower returns the last 5 to 10 years. For the last 10 years the returns have been around 4.5% and for the last 5 years about 2.3%. This data is as of 2012.

Eq. II – Suppose you invest $1000 per year, what can you expect after N years assuming an average interest rate of 10 percent?

P-yearlyP-yearly-pie

I chose these examples as they are essentially equivalent methods of investing money to make a million. You can start with 10K and let it ride from the start or you can invest 1K per year over the same time span. There are other combinations of investment strategy and you must choose the one that suits you best. I have provided the framework in calculation ways, but you must decide what works for you. If you are young then time is on your side, but if you are older, you will have to play catch up, so to speak. Play around with the numbers in the equations I provided. There are calculators online that do such things too. Here is one from Dave Ramsey you might find useful. His calculator does a monthly compounding for an average yearly interest rate, which comes out a bit more than the equations I derived since I only consider the yearly average compounding. Have fun and play around with it now that you may understand the principles a little better, which was the primary objective of this blog in quantitative and qualitative ways. In that spirit,  may your investing ways serve you well in latter days…

good news-rich

None of these calculations account for inflation, which is a factor in considering the total amount calculated in today’s dollars vs. what it might be worth in the future. Inflation (like most interest rates) varies year to year, but has an historical average of about 2-3% per year. Conceptually, this calculation should be analogous to interest gain over N years. The illustration here was to show the power of numbers in geometric progression that is reflected in compound interest gains over time. This is a great advantage as shown here and it can be said that indeed, as the old adage goes (and mathematically verified here), Time is Money!

Happy \pi  Day!PIDAY

Here’s a perspective:

Have you ever thought about what one TRILLION of anything looks like? One trillion dollars? Government likes to throw these figures around – million, billion, trillion and promote so-called “stimulus packages” and “bailouts”. But, really, what does it all mean?

Let’s put some scale to it and see exactly what a trillion dollars might looks like. We’ll start with a $100 dollar bill. Currently the largest U.S. denomination in general circulation. A C-note, a Benjamin… [$100]

A packet of one hundred $100 bills is less than 1/2″ thick and contains $10,000. Fits in your pocket easily and is more than enough for week or two of shamefully decadent fun. [$10,000]




Believe it or not, this next little pile is $1 million dollars (100 packets of $10,000). You could stuff that into a grocery bag and walk around with it. [$1,000,000] 



While a measly $1 million looked a little unimpressive, $100 million is a little more respectable. It fits neatly on a standard pallet… [$100,000,000]




And $1 BILLION dollars… it takes ten standard size pallets…. now we’re really getting somewhere and still seems managable… [$1,000,000,000]




Next we’ll look at ONE TRILLION dollars. This is that number we’ve been hearing so much about. What is a trillion dollars? Well, it’s a million million. It’s a thousand billion. It’s a one followed by 12 zeros. [$1,000,000,000,000]

You ready for this?

It’s pretty surprising.

Here it is…

 $1 trillion dollars…



(And notice those pallets are double stacked!)

So the next time you hear someone toss around the phrase “trillion dollars”… that’s what they’re talking about. Math and Statistics people often complain the general public doesn’t understand numbers. Fair enough, but It’s not really an easy concept unless you see it in action. Hope this illustration has shed some light on orders of magnitude. There’s a big difference in powers of 10 when numbers get large – 10^6 (million) to 10^9 (billion) to 10^12 (trillion). See one of my earlier blogs “What is a Living Thing” for a different perspective on this.

Just printing this amount of money would take a while, but the time it will take to pay it back with interest is immense! This is a really BIG deal!!